by Brendan Cole

Ireland should win this match. They are more powerful in the tight five. They have a stronger set-piece. They are more experienced. They have better players in the essential positions. They are playing at home.

On the other hand, Wales may just have the edge 'mind over matter' game that sometimes seems to escape Eddie O'Sullivan's team. Warren Gatland and Shaun Edwards have done a fantastic job, and Wales are now motivated, and they believe.

Watch Ireland v Wales live on RTÉ Two and www.rte.ie/live (Ireland only) on Saturday, 8 March. Commentary is live on Saturday Sport on RTÉ Radio 1.

More than any other team, they have hit their straps and kept going from minute one to minute 80 in all of their games. That, rather than poor play by the opposition or bad game management, has been the key to the purple patches they have had late in their games so far.

As the great South African golfer Gary Player put it; 'the harder I work, the luckier I get': watch Wales v England again and the abiding impression is of the frenetic leg drive the Welsh brought to the contact area throughout the entire match. Forget the dash and dazzle of the outside backs for a moment. Wales are where they are they are because they have up to now been the best team at rucking and tackling in the tournament.

But what sets this match up so perfectly is that Ireland are the only team to have produced a similar performance to date. As we saw against France, they were outclassed initially, but they kept going, wore down the opposition in the contact area, and almost busted their way to what would have been a deserved win. Like a duel between thoroughbreds, it was about top speed, and the ability to sustain it. France won on the first count, Ireland took the second;

unfortunately for Ireland, the finishing post arrived a minute or so too soon, and France got it on the nod.

Against Wales, Ireland face a team with marginally less speed but seemingly bottomless staying power. Going on what we have seen so far, this could be the most ferocious rucking contest we have seen for many a year. Will it decide the match? Possibly not. Both teams are mentally tough, and it is hard to see either folding under pressure in the manner of England on Weekend One.

Other factors - defence, cutting edge, and the set piece- could prove decisive.
 

Ireland's defensive line: weakness?

Clearly, Ireland's defensive line has not been in the same class as Wales so far in this tournament. Soft out wide, tending to drift rather than shift, and occasionally technically suspect in the hit, it is simply not of the same standard of their play elsewhere; would Scotland have waltzed Wales down the pitch in the manner they did Ireland for Simon Webster's try? Unlikely.

By contrast, Wales have made hay through a brilliantly calibrated Shaun Edwards designed system. Almost like a sixteenth man it has speed, superb timing and the ability to make big plays at the right time. In order to get the best out of it, Wales have decided to go with Stephen Jones tackling and bravery, rather than James Hook's class in attack. Is it the right call? Probably.
 Out-half has become one of the most important defensive positions in rugby and with Jones at 10, Wales have a clarity and mental strength that should feed the rest of the line from the inside out. Ireland, with Ronan O'Gara there, cannot be as forward.

Advantage Wales.

But it doesn't end there: Ireland have the tools to make the Welsh line an irrelevance, or at least take the worst of the sting out of it. The key is the lineout and the driving maul; the weapon which has underpinned much of Ireland's success against Wales in recent years (although it let them down badly in the 2005 match).

The problem is that none of Ireland's three hookers has had a good day's throwing in in a long time. That is at least partly due to system issues, which have created a vicious cycle of mental pressure and uncertainty.

Reason to believe Irish lineout will perform?

Fortunately, Ireland could well get away with it this time as Wales, have shorter props and stockier locks than France, and do not have as good a defensive lineout. In fact, Italy and even Scotland have more aerial athletes and height to call on. Paul O'Connell's return could help to get things working properly again, if through force of will as much as anything else. If that happens, Ireland will be in clover. Their driving maul is still probably the best around on the international stage and the weight, technique, power and leg drive could be too much for the Welsh to handle.

Click here for Brendan Cole's preview of Scotland v England.

The obvious likelihood is that Wales will seek to pull it down or else get penalties by forcing reactions from the likes of Donncha O'Callaghan, whose temper can still get the better of him at times; there is no better place for skulduggery like a maul these days. Ireland will have to keep their cool, but if they can, the maul could be a vital source of points, momentum and field position. All in all, referee Wayne Barnes looks the type to suit Ireland more than a Wales side inclined to live closer to the edge. The scrum could also be a source of a platform and an 'in' with which to upset Wales, although it is not likely to be as important.

Looking further out, the backline and back row contests are also fascinating, if likely to be less important to the outcome. Ireland have been forced to re-jig by bringing in Rob Kearney to full-back in place of injury hit pair Girvan Dempsey and Geordan Murphy. Kearney's move means that Shane Horgan comes in on the left wing, and Tommy Bowe moves across to the right. All in all, it's no bad thing. Kearney combines the best qualities of Murphy and Dempsey, and has a bigger and better boot than either. Full-back can be lonely, and it's obviously a huge test of his mental strength but if Kearney passes it, Ireland could have found yet another accidental solution to what had become a pressing problem.

Horgan: brings more variety to Irish attack

Horgan is also a good man to have back in; between himself and O'Gara's cross kicking, Ireland could yet have a relatively painless way to counter the hard-up Welsh defending. Wales will also have hopes of reaping dividends out wide; Shane Williams is a huge threat and it's hard to see him not having an impact at some stage. Lee Byrne, meanwhile, seems to have done better out of working with the Gatland/Edwards team than anyone else, taking the right lines with power and pace and reaping dividends. Inside centre Gavin Henson's long and accurate passing is something else for Ireland to worry about, especially as it is paired with the complimentary armour piercing threat of Tom Shanklin at 13.

Indeed, it is in the centre where Ireland could have most difficulty. Wales know Brian O'Driscoll's quality, and the talismanic effect he is capable of having on the team. They will seek to tighten it up for the captain and Andrew Trimble, and have the means to do so. Henson and Shanklin are excellent tacklers, and right wing Mark Jones is also a big hitter in contact. Quick ball is the key to freeing things up, but the Welsh pack, and especially the back-row, could see Ireland struggle to power through tackles or ruck quickly enough to get it. Stalemate is a clear possibility, although O'Driscoll and Henson will doubtless be keen to assert themselves given the history between them.

On the other hand, Horgan's return also brings a new dimension to the 10-12 channel, where his ability to take ball up has served Ireland well down the years. All in all, the Meath man's variety, allied to the quality of Bowe and Kearney, make Ireland a more threatening unit then they have been for quite some time. Thanks to his Horgan's experience, Ireland's won't be afraid to call on him and ff he has one of his better games, it could turn out to be a huge plus.

At scrum-half, Mike Phillips v Eoin Reddan is yet another tight battle; Phillips is a huge threat breaking through the middle, and is the first man Ireland need to stop. But Reddan is a cannier operator and his sharpness and vision could yet be a source of the type of shock score Wasps (his club team) have specialised in over the years. Both have had service issues, but Ireland can present the ball properly at the ruck, the pass and the break could spark the backline. Again, a quick ruck or two would be a massive boon.

Off-field issues; barely relevant

What else is there? Off the field, there is the Croke Park factor, the sometimes disappointing crowd (Come On! And no Mexican waves. Please.), the coaches' historic feud, and the early kick-off. All factors, but all bordering on irrelevant in the end (although the crowd could conceivably provide a key lift to Ireland if it's tight). These are two mentally tough units and this looks a match that will be decided by the thirty players and subs who cross the white lines at 1.15pm on Saturday, which is as it should be. 

On that basis, Ireland should win it, and if they can match the Welsh fire with motivation enough of their own, you feel they will. Having found themselves again in France, and been frustrated by the Scots, they are due a huge performance. If that happens, Ireland could even have the tools to stake a proper claim for Championship honours going into next week.

Here's hoping.

Ireland v Wales; 1.15pm, Saturday, 8 March, Croke Park

Ireland: R Kearney (Leinster); S Horgan (Leinster), B O'Driscoll (Leinster, capt), A Trimble (Ulster), T Bowe (Ulster); R O'Gara (Munster), E Reddan (Wasps); M Horan (Munster), R Best (Ulster), J Hayes (Munster), D O'Callaghan (Munster), P O'Connell (Munster), D Leamy (Munster), D Wallace (Munster), J Heaslip (Leinster).

Bench: B Jackman (Leinster), T Buckley (Munster), M O'Driscoll (Munster), S Easterby (Scarlets), P Stringer (Munster), P Wallace (Ulster), L Fitzgerald (Leinster).

Wales: L Byrne (Ospreys); M Jones (Scarlets), T Shanklin (Blues), G Henson (Ospreys), S Williams (Ospreys); S Jones (Scarlets), M Phillips (Ospreys); G Jenkins (Blues), H Bennett (Ospreys), A Jones (Ospreys), I Gough (Ospreys), AW Jones (Ospreys), J Thomas (Ospreys), M Williams (Blues), R Jones (Ospreys, capt).

Bench: M Rees (Scarlets), D Jones (Ospreys), I Evans (Ospreys), G Delve (Gloucester), D Peel (Scarlets), J Hook (Ospreys), S Parker (Ospreys).

Ireland v Wales; 1.15pm, Saturday, 8 March, Croke Park

Ireland: R Kearney (Leinster); S Horgan (Leinster), B O'Driscoll (Leinster, capt), A Trimble (Ulster), T Bowe (Ulster); R O'Gara (Munster), E Reddan (Wasps); M Horan (Munster), R Best (Ulster), J Hayes (Munster), D O'Callaghan (Munster), P O'Connell (Munster), D Leamy (Munster), D Wallace (Munster), J Heaslip (Leinster).

Bench: B Jackman (Leinster), T Buckley (Munster), M O'Driscoll (Munster), S Easterby (Scarlets), P Stringer (Munster), P Wallace (Ulster), L Fitzgerald (Leinster). 

Wales: L Byrne (Ospreys); M Jones (Scarlets), T Shanklin (Blues), G Henson (Ospreys), S Williams (Ospreys); S Jones (Scarlets), M Phillips (Ospreys); G Jenkins (Blues), H Bennett (Ospreys), A Jones (Ospreys), I Gough (Ospreys), AW Jones (Ospreys), J Thomas (Ospreys), M Williams (Blues), R Jones (Ospreys, capt).
Bench: M Rees (Scarlets), D Jones (Ospreys), I Evans (Ospreys), G Delve (Gloucester), D Peel (Scarlets), J Hook (Ospreys), S Parker (Ospreys).

Referee: Wayne Barnes (England).

Ireland v Wales: Expert Views

Conor O'Shea on the team selections and the match.

Conor O'Shea on Warren Gatland.

Brent Pope on the match, and his charity bet.

Brendan Cole on Warren Gatland and Eddie O'Sullivan.